张广瑞

My judge about the situation on the economy is different from the mainstream. I deem 2009 should be an upsurge in outbound travel. Why? Outbound tourism consumption is the best time in China while the price and the market are relatively good. Over the past years foreign markets are afraid of the Chinese, but now the Chinese are welcomed by them. I can not quite understand some of the current arguments which are in favor of the "Let the Americans buy American goods”.
It is true that inbound travel market is very low currently which does not mean there is no chance. As a grand country like China we should not give up the inbound tourism promotion at all times.

In a long term, the profits of domestic tourism transfers between regions while the total of the wealth is not increased. Government should therefore support our travel agent to do publicity. The reason of the development of Dubai is that the government has given the advanced construction of basic facilities. To develop the high-end tourism, the Government must go simultaneously.


       《世界酒店》：从数量上来说，国民的钱包应该慢慢在鼓起来，但是却越来越拮据了，进行旅游消费的比重下降了。为什么会出现这种情况？
        张广瑞：这次危机对企业的影响比较大，对大部分中国老百姓来讲，目前还是比较幸运的。因为次贷危机最直接影响的是美国，而美国把这种影响转到了世界各地。我春节时期还在美国，就感觉洛杉矶商店的生意远远不如前几年，美国人确实感觉到是在过紧日子了，中国目前还没有到这个程度。
但是另外一个问题是，一旦心理有了某个预期，国民消费就有所控制。这也与旅游本身的性质有关，旅游毕竟不是必要的消费。现在谈得比较多的是政府救市，从广东开始，随及各个省市开始学，这样的刺激方式，效果是否大？作为一种宣传，效果还不错。但从长期考虑，只有消费者确实感觉这种刺激对他有益，才会有消费行为，否则很难有直接的明显效果。

       《世界酒店》：目前，有很多呼声支持国内旅游消费，也有支持出境和入境旅游消费的，您对当前旅游经济的判断持什么观点？
        张广瑞：我对经济形势的判断和目前的主流判断有点区别。我认为2009年应当是出境旅游的一个高潮。为什么呢？目前正好是中国人出境旅游消费最好的时候，由于外国需要中国这样的市场，所以无论是在价格上、市场上，都相对较好。过去很多国家怕中国人去了之后不走，现在是欢迎中国人去消费。我不是很赞成都要学“让美国人买美国人的东西”的做法.作为消费者,考虑的就是“这个东西现在便宜，现在值”,就应当现在消费。