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Global misery — It will be difficult for the tourism economy to recover fully within three years

Writtten by Wu Junlin

In recent months, I am reluctant to write articles.Because of the worldwide COVID-19 epidemic, I read too many words related to "direct attack and associated injury".I'm in a bad mood. Recently, an even more sinister virus, Omicron, has shut down the world's tourism rich countries once again.

Today, there are nearly 300 million cumulative cases of the global COVID-19 epidemic. The number of people killed by COVID-19 has reached about 5200000. The impact of the "COVID-19 key disaster" is hard to predict.

In the past two years, China's economic losses and global economic losses have exceeded the comprehensive losses caused by the Second World War, and the economic losses of tourism are heavy.

According to the prediction of the world tourism organization headquartered in Madrid, Spain, the scale of global international tourist reception in 2021 will still be 70% - 75% lower than the peak in 2019, which means that the expected recovery of the tourism market has not yet come.Therefore, after losing $2 trillion in revenue last year, the global tourism industry will continue to suffer $2 trillion in losses this year.In any case, tourism has been one of the industries most affected by the global epidemic.The world tourism organization has also recently released information: in 2019, the number of global tourists will be 1.5 billion; In 2021, the decline rate will be about 400 million person times.

The real global tourism situation is likely to be more difficult.Tourism economic development is the "vanguard" of world economic prosperity. Without a prosperous and peaceful social environment, it is impossible for a country to have a vigorous development of tourism economy.Before 2020, the contribution of the world tourism economy to the overall economy will accounted for 10% or more.The number of employees in the tourism industry accounts for about 9% of the number of workers in the world. The same is true of China. For a long time, the development speed of China's tourism industry has increased by double digits (10% - 13%), and the overall economic income of China's tourism industry accounts for 9% - 11% of the national GDP contribution rate（In 2019, the growth of China's tourism economy is higher than that of the national GDP）.In 2019, the number of domestic tourists in China reached 6.006 billion, an increase of 8.4% over the same period of last year; The total number of inbound and outbound tourists was 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; In the whole year, the total tourism revenue was 6.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.The total comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national GDP is 10.94 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.05% of the total GDP.There are 28.25 million direct employment in tourism, and 79.87 million direct and indirect employment in tourism, accounting for 10.31% of the total employed population in China, which is the overall value of the historical stage of China's tourism development in the thirty or forty years before 2020.

Abrupt and mutated COVID-19 has inflict heavy losses on the global tourism economy. The tourism economy of poor countries such as Europe, America, Asia Pacific and Africa has fallen to the freezing point.The economic development of China's tourism industry has obviously regressed.

Although China's tourism investment and development has created countless dividends over the past few decades, hundreds of billions or even trillions of investment, more than 30000 scenic spots, more than 500000 hotel accommodation facilities, and countless tourism supporting related products are becoming more and more difficult to bear their weight.

Since 2020, hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourism enterprises have closed down  and transformed.Especially for hotels and catering enterprises, their revenue rate has hovered around 30%-40% of the total revenue in 2019 for a long time, and the cost can not be recovered.Since the second half of 2021, the tourism industry in northern China to the north of the Yangtze River has suffered a comprehensive loss, and the tourism industry in southern China to the south of the Yangtze River is not much better.Taking Hainan health Island, the most important seaside resort destination, as an example, the total tourism revenue in 2021 will not exceed 40% of the total tourism revenue in 2019, which should be 30-40 billion yuan (Hainan's GDP in 2019 is more than 530 billion yuan, and the total tourism revenue is more than 100 billion yuan).

If there is no comprehensive income from real estate and tourism in Hainan Province, how will the state arrange and help the "Hainan free trade port of the world" tide over the difficulties?

COVID-19's epidemic is continuing. The new " Omicron " variant virus is fierce. So far, the new crown effect has not been as effective as expected. Any country that relies solely on vaccination to cope with mutating viruses is not a permanent solution.

If countries around the world can not open their doors at ease, international tourist exchanges and international tourism transactions will be reduced.Only relying on domestic demand to stimulate China's tourism industry will have a certain effect in the short term.We assume that the COVID-19 epidemic outside China is difficult to control and eliminate in two or three years. This is also the prediction of some experts.Even though China controlled and eliminated COVID-19 in 2022, I personally believe that China's tourism economy, which has already hurt its vitality, will not be able to fully revitalize and rise to the level of high light industry in the next three years.

On the other hand, China's economic development will still be disturbed by countries such as Britain and the United States, and encounter the troubles related to the virus epidemic that may be brought by these countries, which will also bring unpredictable delay and damage to the economic development of China and even the global tourism industry.

China was once the world's largest outbound and third largest inbound tourist country. Without the prosperity of Chinese tourism, the development of world tourism economy is incomplete - this is also a great regret.

Both at present and in the future, developed countries attach great importance to "digital survival" and "high-tech development". However, the main elements of the tourism economy are catering, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping and entertainment. Without the meeting and communication between people and the direct interaction between people and things, the tourism industry can not be perfectly displayed.

Without the recovery and revitalization of tourism and tourism economy, the multi-ethnic culture of the world with bright stars will be dim.In a world without rich and colorful culture, the so-called omnipotent human planet may lack soul，blood and flesh.