【编者按】2020年即将过去，2021年已然而来，今天，我们将联合国经社部世界酒店联盟主席、国际旅游与酒店联合总会执行主席、中爱国际文旅集团董事会主席吴军林先生2020年的封笔之作以官微发出，以飨读者。该文将会在2021年第一期《文旅》杂志“卷首•观察家”栏目刊发出来，以作为吴军林主席“新年献词”之“代言”。

 

大家都非常艰难地即将走过2020年——

 

2020年中国经济第一季度总量萎缩了6.8%，第二季度总量增长仅为3.2%，全球经济发展到目前为止几乎停摆或出现诸多负增长，这个世界在2020年留下了难以抹灭的哀伤——

 

2020年国内生产总值增长速度表（第一、二季度）

 

作为文旅行业一位“年轻的老兵”，我回忆起了大中华千年以前的瘟疫灾害，想起了几百年前欧洲人类生命的大消亡，思索起了百年前残酷战争的杀戮和几十年前红军万里长征的“人类伟大奇迹”，我们——人类为什么要不停地奋勇前进？70亿的人类未来将沉重地走向何方？

 

2021年已经来了，但2021依然是个未知的年份。“新冠病毒疫情”还未结束，我们中国前不久在北京召开的“中央经济工作会议”上领导们依然选择了坚强。在遥遥太空之上，在冥冥星球之中，我们的地球似乎是难以负重前行了。灾难在2020年集中地爆发出来，不仅仅是“新冠病毒疫情”，那些个战争、自然灾害、饥饿、死亡依然还在“蔓延扩展”；那些个阴谋和暗算依然还在“计划和行动”；那些个将老百姓的血肉和精髓熬成“银子和权杖”后的不少人依然还在大肆挥霍……

 

 

2021年已经来了，但2021依然是个未知的年份。世界的东西方大国一直在角力，一直在通过政治的、经济的、科技的、军事的、文化的等等方式进行明里和暗里的较量与厮杀。2020年一场突如其来的“新冠病毒疫情”将世界格局进一步打破，这场疫情让全世界人们看清楚了许多也想清楚了许多，这给百年中国快速崛起提供了绝佳机会。很显然，工业文明发展了两三百年的欧美国家开始在衰落，以中国为中央之国地位的“东方巨人”在迅速地成为全世界发展增速和发展质量最好的国家，没有之一。2020年第三季度中国经济总量增长为4.9%，全年经济总量将会达到或超过100万亿元人民币。

 

非常庆幸，我们身处这个伟大时代和伟大国家。我们本身爬行了非常饥饿的农耕岁月，度过了非常动荡不安的“文革”政治时代，也经历了超常规改革开放的市场经济浪潮，如今，我们正面临一个十分错综复杂的“大变局”时期，看到了“第二次世界大战”以来最严重的经济衰退景象。从地缘政治来讲，几十年来中国有着来自国际上多重组合的巨大压力和诸多不利因素；从高新科技和空天技术的突飞猛进发展来看，中国却是一颗冉冉上升的明星，在某些方面中国超过了美国和其他国家，令全球瞩目。

 

目前，英伦三岛和美联邦的“病毒疫情”正在一个高峰期，整个欧洲似乎全部沦陷，亚非“疫情不确定因素”在增多，印度和非洲尤其令人担忧，特别是那些贫穷落后的国家，“新冠病毒疫情”给它们的旅游业经济带来了毁灭性打击，这些国家的其他产业经济也同样遭受到重创。毫无疑问，中国这个拥有5000年文明的古国全面赢得了2020年“新冠病毒抗战”！在全世界，中国是唯一实现“复产复工”后经济正增长的国家。中国，无论是在政治管控，经济结构调整、疫情防治，还是在社会生活安排、民生福祉考虑等等方面在全球起到了表率作用，然而，西方的几个经济发达国家并没有积极地向中国学习疫情防控经验和分享抗疫救治成果。在疫情期间的11月，中国和另外14个国家正式签署了《区域全面伙伴关系协定》，这是中国在地缘政治上的难得的胜利！

 

人类面临天灾时是非常弱小的，几乎不堪一击。到目前为止，全球感染“新冠病毒”的总数超过8000万人，死亡人数近180万人，这是非常可怕的。预计，这场“新冠病毒”将会带走“强大美国”50万人的生命！目前，最先进的美国国家医疗和防治系统几乎瘫痪，未来美国全社会将会发生系统性深刻变化。

 

预计，2021年全球旅游业经济恢复和发展依然不太乐观，中国旅游业经济发展也不会十分理想。没有国际旅游和重要城市旅游、热点目的地旅游的经济复兴，中国旅游业经济在未来对国家GDP贡献率将会缩水50%以上（相对于2018—2019年）。宏观之下，没有国际大循环的中国的旅游业，还会出现众多“大投入大产出”的企业和项目“关停并转”，中国旅游业的旅行社、酒店、景区发展将会面临大面积洗牌和重整，2021年中国旅游业从业人数及其关联从业人数也将大大减少。

 

11月份，联合国秘书长古特雷斯在“文旅国际峰会暨第十三届世界酒店论坛”上以视频方式发表了重要的谈话，给未来世界旅游业发展提出警示和建议。联合国经社部国际旅游与酒店联合总会在这次“峰会及论坛”上提出了诸多国际旅游、东西方旅游和文旅融合方面新观点和新课题。

 

 

 

12月13日中国文旅部部长胡和平在“中国旅游集团发展论坛”上认真指出和强调了未来科技和旅游业融合的重要性，文化和旅游进一步融合的重要性，以及倡导“做智慧旅游示范者”等等的重要性。

 

未来中国旅游业发展怎么办？在世界范围内，如果中国和其他国家在2021年第一季度的“新冠病毒疫情”防控方面不能有力控制和诊治，那么2021年4月份之后的旅游业经济发展是比较堪忧的，如果2021年旅游业经济还能保持2020年6—7%的增长那就相当不错了。当然，中国当下采取的“内循环”为主，“内外循环”并重的战略是非常可取的，但问题来了，“内外循环互促”是很容易带来“新冠病毒物传人”的，怎么办？2020年下半年在快速恢复国际贸易方面取得可喜的成果，但是也带来了诸多“隐患”和“恐怖”！关键是，世界是个“地球村”，整个地球安全了，中国才会更加安全。根据世界货币基金组织预测：中国2020年经济增长将达到1.9%；世界银行在2020年12月的报告中预测，中国经济的增长率2021年将升至7.9%。这两个预测是非常权威的，也是我们全中国人民希望达到和努力能够达到的。

 

旅游业发展是拉动中国内需的关键，旅游业是中国国民经济中的支柱产业。中国目前有市场主体1.23亿户，其中民营及个体工商户达8261户，民营企业在就业率和新增就业率方面分别达到80%和90%，据有关智库分析，中国的中等收入人群2035年将会达到8亿，中国曾经有连续7年国内消费贡献率达到100%，旅游业在2021年“内循环为主”原则下做好国内旅游业务是非常必要的“重中之重”工作。

 

今天，我们怀着无比期待的心情拥抱着2021年的到来，我们理想着2021年是一个非常可喜的年份。如果，2021年是一个健康的安全的快乐的年份，那么我们才能创造出更多的政治与军事，经济与科技，文化与旅游方面的奇迹，并能享受更多的美好生活，我们才能更多地拥有“诗和远方”……

 

在2020和2021年交替的“节点”上，我们是无法用口号和誓言去征服一切的。在新的一年来临之际，我们只能更自信、更理性和更科学地面对社会面对生活，人类不能太过于贪婪，不能在“所谓的奋斗中”奔跑得太快，不能过份地透支我们的健康与心智去破坏生态环境和社会系统平衡与和谐，否则，我们迎来的将会一个丑陋和面目狰狞的2021年！

 

最后，我们希望，在中央政府英明领导和有效的系统管治下，中国旅游业经济发展能逐步持续稳健地增长，中国在未来世界发展中所起的作用会越来越大，我们热爱我们的祖国，我们热爱已然而来的美好的2021年，2021年的阳光在苦难之后一定会在地平线之上绽放得更加绚烂！

 

2020.12.29于北京

 

吴军林：联合国世界酒店联盟主席、国际旅游与酒店联合总会执行会长、中爱国际文旅集团董事会主席

 

 

China's economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 and grew by just 3.2% in the second quarter. The global economy has so far almost stopped or experienced negative growth, leaving an indelible ——

 

As a "young veteran" in the cultural and travel industry, I recall the plague of a thousand years ago in Greater China, the great demise of human life in Europe hundreds of years ago. Thinking about the killing of the cruel war a hundred years ago and the great miracle of mankind that the Red Army fought for decades ago, why do we —— mankind to keep moving forward? Where will the 7 billion human future go?

 

2021 has come, but 2021 is still an unknown year. The "new crown virus epidemic" is not over, we China recently held in Beijing "Central Economic work Conference" leaders still choose to be strong. In the distant space, in the Pluto, our earth seems to be hard to carry forward. The disaster occurred in 2020, not only the "new crown virus epidemic ", those wars, natural disasters, hunger, death are still" spreading "; those conspiracies and hidden plans are still "planning and action "; those people who boil the flesh and essence of the people into" silver and scepter "many people are still profligate......

 

2021 is coming, but 2021 is an unknown year. The world's East and West powers have been fighting, through political, economic, technological, military, cultural and other ways to fight and fight. In 2020, a sudden "new crown virus epidemic" will further break the world pattern, this epidemic has made people all over the world see a lot and think a lot, which provides a great opportunity for the rapid rise of China in a hundred years. Obviously, the European and American countries that have developed industrial civilization for two or three hundred years are beginning to decline, and the "Oriental giant" with China as the central country is rapidly becoming the best country in the world, not one of them. In the third quarter of 2020, China's total economic growth was 4.9 percent, and the annual total economic volume will reach or exceed 100 trillion Yuan.

 

We are very glad that we are in this great age and great country. We have crawled through very hungry farming years, passed a very turbulent political era of the Cultural Revolution, and experienced a wave of extraordinary reform and opening up in the market economy. Now, we are facing a very complicated period of great change, seeing the worst economic recession since World War II. Geo-politically speaking, China has had great pressure and many unfavorable factors from many international combinations for decades, but from the rapid development of high-tech and sky technology, China is a rising star. In some ways, China has overtaken the United States and other countries, attracting global attention.

 

At present, the "virus epidemic" in the British three islands and the United States is at a peak, the whole of Europe seems to be falling, the "epidemic uncertainty" in Asia and Africa is increasing, India and Africa are particularly worrying, especially in poor and backward countries. The new crown virus epidemic has dealt a devastating blow to their tourism economy, as well as other industrial economies in these countries. There is no doubt that China, an ancient country with 5000 years of civilization, won the 2020" New Crown virus War of Resistance "! In the world, China is the only country with positive economic growth after resuming production and resuming work. China has played a leading role in political control, economic restructuring, epidemic prevention and control, social life arrangements, people's well-being, and so on. However, several large western economies have not actively learned from China about epidemic prevention and control experience and shared the results of anti-epidemic treatment. In November during the epidemic, China and 14 other countries formally signed the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement, which is a rare geopolitical victory for China!

 

 

Human beings are very weak and almost vulnerable to natural disasters. So far, the global total of more than 80 million people infected with the new crown virus, the death toll of nearly 1.8 million people, this is very terrible. It is expected that this "new crown virus" will take away the "strong America "500000 lives! At present, the state-of-the-art national medical and prevention system is almost paralyzed, and the whole society of the United States will undergo profound changes in the future.

 

It is expected that the recovery and development of the global tourism economy in 2021 will remain less optimistic, and China's tourism economy will not be very ideal. without the economic revival of international tourism and important urban tourism, hot destination tourism, china's tourism economy will contribute more than 50% less to GDP whole country in the future (relative to 2018-2019). Macroscopically, China's tourism industry without international circulation will also have a large number of "big input and large output" enterprises and projects "shut down and turn ", China's tourism travel agencies, hotels, scenic spots will face a large area of shuffling and restructuring ,2021 China's tourism industry and its associated number of employees will be greatly reduced.

 

In November, UN Secretary General Guterres delivered an important video talk at the International Summit and the 13th World Hotel Forum to warn and advise on future world tourism development. At the "Summit and Forum ", UN-DESA's International Federation of Tourism and Hotels presented many new ideas and topics on international tourism, East-West tourism and cultural integration.

 

On December 13, Hu Heping, Minister of Culture and Tourism of China, at the China Tourism Group Development Forum, seriously pointed out and stressed the importance of future integration of science, technology and tourism, and the importance of further integration of culture and tourism. And advocate "to be a smart tourism model" and so on.

 

What about the future development of China's tourism industry? Worldwide, if China and other countries can not control and treat the "new crown virus epidemic" in the first quarter of 2021, then the development of tourism economy after April 2021 is more worrying. It would be good if the tourism economy maintained 6-7% growth in 2020 in 2021. Of course, China's current "internal circulation" is the main strategy ," internal and external circulation "is very desirable, but the problem ," internal and external circulation mutual promotion" is easy to bring "new crown virus ", how to do? The second half of 2020 in the rapid resumption of international trade achieved gratifying results, but also brought a lot of "hidden dangers" and "terror "! The key is that the world is a "global village ", the whole earth is safe, China will be more secure. According to the World Monetary Fund, China's economic growth will reach 1.9 percent in 2020, and the World Bank forecast in its December 2020 report that China's economic growth rate will rise to 7.9 percent in 2021. These two forecasts are very authoritative, and we all Chinese people hope to achieve and strive to achieve.

 

 

 

Tourism is the key to boosting domestic demand in China, Tourism is a pillar industry in China's national economy. China currently has 123 million market players, Among them ,8261 private and individual industrial and commercial households, Private enterprises reached 80 per cent and 90 per cent respectively in terms of employment and new employment, According to the think tank, China's middle-income population will reach 800 million by 2035, China has contributed 100% of its domestic consumption for seven consecutive years, Tourism in 2021 under the principle of "internal circulation" to do a good job in domestic tourism business is a very necessary "top priority" work.

 

Today, we embrace 2021 with great expectation, and we ideal 2021 as a very gratifying year. If 2021 is a healthy, safe and happy year, then we can create more political and military, economic and technological, cultural and tourism miracles, and enjoy more good lives. Only then can we have more poetry and distant "……

 

On the alternate "nodes" of 2020 and 2021, we can not conquer everything with slogans and vows. At the dawn of the new year, we can only face society more confidently, rationally and scientifically. Human beings can not be too greedy, can not run too fast in the "so-called struggle ", can not overdraw our health and mind to destroy the ecological environment and social system balance and harmony, otherwise, We will usher in an ugly and ferocious 2021!

 

 

 

Finally, we hope that under the wise leadership and effective system governance of the central government, China's tourism economic development will continue to grow steadily, China will play an increasingly important role in the future development of the world, we love our motherland, We love 2021,2021 sunshine will bloom on the horizon after suffering!

 

2020.12.29 in Beijing

 迎接美好2021↓↓↓