按照2019年统计数字表明，中国是世界第一大出境旅游国，第四大入境旅游国，全球综合旅游发展指数排名第二，仅次于法国。然而，从2020年开始，这些个来自官方的“数字”将会彻底发生变化。自从文化部和国家旅游局合并以来，中国旅游产业经济发展“大趋势和基准线条”比较模糊，行业发展及管控力度越来越弱，文化与旅游的融合似乎有不少是“强行嫁接”，许多地方行业管理部门整合尚未完成，“文旅小镇”项目落地成灾，行业投资开发企业越来越“六神无主”……

突如其来的新冠病毒疫情天灾，中国旅游业经济几乎是遭遇“灭顶”，国际游没了，国内游也几乎没了（跨区域旅游系统依然没有恢复的“时间表”），只剩下“自由行”和家门口的“自娱自乐”了，这样的局面还能构成旅游业“产业经济格局”吗？旅游业经济发展是众多的人与人和人与自然的互动交流的结果，目前线上的旅游集团业务就死得更惨了。

China's coronavirus epidemic has been basically under control (but there is a possibility of local recurrence), the global coronavirus epidemic is still grim, the first wave of the U.S. epidemic has not yet arrived, Brazil and India and other countries have high epidemic growth figures. There is no doubt that the world has faced and appeared "pattern reorganization ", political, economic, military, science and technology and other forces have been redistributed.

As an important aspect of the service industry, tourism has been hit hard. We have learned from the Tourism Industry Associations and Research Institutions of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and other major countries that the international tourism business has been suspended for half a year, especially China's inbound and outbound tourism business has been catastrophic. Many international travel agencies and their derivatives businesses and institutions have closed down.

According to the UN World Tourism Organization, the global tourism industry was hit hard by the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020, and the annual number of international tourists fell 60% to 80% from last year or so. The World Tourism Organization, based in Madrid, Spain, believes that the global tourism industry is suffering from the worst crisis since at least 1950, with many countries imposing travel restrictions to combat the epidemic, including airport closures and borders.

According to 2019 statistics, China is the world's largest outbound tourist country, the fourth largest inbound tourist country, and the global comprehensive tourism development index ranks second, second only to France. However, from 2020, these official "game numbers" will be completely changed. Since the merger of the Ministry of Culture and the National Tourism Administration, China's tourism economic development seems to be increasingly blurred, industry control is becoming weaker, the integration of culture and tourism seems to have a lot of "forced grafting" be suspected, many local industry management departments and investment and development enterprises are confusing

Not long ago, I saw an article "the global tourism industry is dead ", recently saw the report that more than 40000 hotels in China closed down, thousands of hotel brands fell. Although it is a bit serious, it is truth.

Coronavirus Epidemic Scourge, China's tourism economy has almost suffered a "devastating disaster ", international tourism has disappeared, and domestic tourism has almost disappeared (the cross-regional tourism system has not recovered), leaving only" free travel "and" self-entertainment "at home, can such this situation still constitute the tourism" industrial economic pattern "?

Recently, I have been in Hainan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing and other areas of tourism economy first-line research, there are very few tourist in famous scenic area , stay in hotels are only 20-40% of open rate, although there are 30% of open rate for some hotels, but only half of the price (then this open rate is equal to the previous 10~15%). Crucially, many hotel and mid-end hotel chains have closed down in several places (Many brand names are omitted here).

Not long ago, North China's largest and best-business country 5A scenic spots, the World Natural Heritage Conservation "Yeshanpou Scenic Area" declared bankruptcy. This is a very important "symbol" and "warning ", so" Impressed"scenic spots have closed down, other so-called" various flags "of the capital and assets of the operation of scenic spots, or tourist towns will be more ill-fated and not survive.

We recommend that the cultural and tourism administration departments promptly issue the <<National Overall Plan for the Economic Recovery and
Development of Tourism in the "Post-Infection Era of the Coronavirus>>, and support at the national level the development of healthy cross-regional tourism groups between provinces and municipalities, in particular high-end custom-made line tours and personalized leisure vacation tours (e.g. Hainan's tourism start-up and recovery is more representative). Otherwise, the tourism economy will be extremely bad in 2020.  Today, the beautiful Southeast Asian tourism business has been in shock for a long time, the very active Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan tourism economy is estimated to be unable to restart this year, China's tourism economy, which has grown in two digits each year for more than 40 years, has been "driving down ". A tourism economy that has contributed 10% to the country's GDP, or combined with a 9% employment rate, or linked growth in multiple industries, will be a "good memory"

We are very worried that China's tourism economy under the global outbreak is very "precarious ", and it is also possible to move to the edge of" total collapse "after October this year or before" May 1st." in first half of the next year.

Therefore, the ministers and senior leaders in charge of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism should attach great importance to the "tragic status quo" of China's tourism development.

The latest news, the EU's more than 3 million tourism enterprises also face a grim reality, EU tourism accounts for 30% of the global tourism industry, about 27 million people directly or indirectly engaged in tourism work. At present, France, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and other countries are starting cross-border tourism, vigorously promote tourism recovery. These countries pay special attention to the tourism products around the RV and the niche tourism products, and integrate the RV sales, RV camp construction, aviation flight package, as well as health care and medical treatment, and package into more feasible and healthy and safe tourism products and tourism packages, which are worthy of Chinese tourism reference.