来自德勤的Alex Kyriakidis称,如果迪拜到2015年的旅游业增长无法达到25%,那么她的酒店入住率和日均房价都会下降。预计到2015年迪拜的酒店数将增加到8万间客房,而现在只有5万间客房。
即使有一半在建建筑停工,Alex Kyriakidis说:“迪拜还可以多消化15000间客房。”迪拜现在每年吸引约950万名游客。如果所有酒店建设完成,迪拜每年需吸引约1200万游客来支持她的入住率和日均房价。
事实是迪拜的酒店入住率从2007年的80%下降到70%,而每间可销售房收入下降了20%,为240美元。
Occupancy rates and ADR in the glitzy emirate will likely drop unless tourism grows by about 25% by 2015, according to Alex Kyriakidis, global managing director of tourism, hospitality and leisure for Deloitte. Dubai’s hotel inventory is projected to climb to 80,000 guestrooms from its current 50,000 in that period.
Even if half of the expected construction is canceled, “15,000 rooms would be a fairly big increase for Dubai to absorb,” Dubai currently draws about 9.5 million visitors a year; if the full hotel build-out occurs, that figure would need to be about 12 million to sustain current occupancy and ADR, he says.
As it is, Dubai’s occupancy has already slipped to 70% from 80% in 2007, while RevPAR is down 20% in that timeframe to US$240.